TikTok Shop Predictions for 2025
As we approach 2025, TikTok Shop is poised to revolutionize the ecommerce landscape, offering brands unprecedented opportunities to engage with consumers. Since its U.S. debut in September 2023, the platform has experienced remarkable growth, exemplified by surpassing $100 million in sales on Black Friday 2024, a threefold increase from the previous year.
This surge underscores TikTok Shop’s potential to become a dominant force in social commerce. Industry experts anticipate that by 2025, successful brands will adopt comprehensive strategies encompassing the entire sales funnel, from awareness to conversion, to sustain growth. Leveraging the creator network and live shopping features will be crucial in building authentic connections and driving sales.
However, the platform’s rapid expansion is not without challenges. The looming threat of a U.S. ban adds uncertainty to its trajectory. That said, we believe TikTok will remain an integral part of the ecommerce ecosystem. The platform’s immense enterprise value, backed by powerful global investors and institutions with significant lobbying power, makes a ban or forced sale unlikely. Additionally, the broader cultural and political climate in the U.S., with its emphasis on free speech and resistance to government censorship, further supports TikTok’s ability to navigate these challenges. While some regulatory adjustments may be necessary, TikTok is well-positioned to remain a key player in the U.S. market.
In this evolving environment, brands that remain agile and responsive to emerging trends on TikTok Shop are likely to thrive, capitalizing on the platform’s unique blend of entertainment and commerce to engage a diverse and growing user base.
Below are thoughtful predictions from some of the most innovative companies that are shaping the evolution of TikTok Shop, offering insights into the strategies and trends that could define its trajectory in 2025.
Fospha
TikTok Shop is already reshaping how people discover and buy products, and by 2025, it will be even more integrated into the everyday shopping experience. The brands that win on TikTok Shop will be leveraging the entire funnel (Awareness, Consideration and Conversion Ads) to fuel sustainable growth.
We know TikTok Shop is strong for driving instant sales through live shopping events and affiliate marketplaces, but without a strong top-of-funnel strategy, the river of demand will run dry fast. The data on this is clear.
Fospha’s data reveals that brands who invest in Awareness & Consideration ultimately see 42% better ROAS and 35% lower CAC versus those that do not. This poses an exciting opportunity for brands to outpace competitors with a robust, forward-thinking full-funnel approach.
Jamie Bolton | VP Growth | Fospha
Linnworks
Content marketing will be the backbone of success on TikTok Shop in 2025. The Creator Network is already booming, and it’s showing no signs of slowing down. More and more DTC brands will tap into this ecosystem, leveraging creators to amplify their reach and create authentic, engaging content that drives sales. With creators acting as both marketers and advocates, this approach transforms shopping into a natural extension of the TikTok experience. It’s not just about sales—it’s about building trust and credibility with audiences who look to creators for recommendations.
For brands aiming to gain traction on TikTok Shop, having a clear content strategy is essential. Success starts with identifying your brand’s unique story and how it aligns with the TikTok audience. Collaborate with creators who share your brand values and focus on showcasing your hero products. The key is consistency—building a steady stream of high-quality content that captures attention, builds trust, and reinforces your brand identity within the TikTok ecosystem.
Sarah Znideric | VP of Partnerships | Linnworks
Social Snowball
TikTok Shop in 2025: The Race to Dominate U.S. Ecommerce
The ecommerce landscape in 2025 will see TikTok Shop doubling down on investments in infrastructure, partnerships, and platform features, positioning itself as a major competitor to Amazon and Walmart. TikTok has already made significant strides in integrating warehousing, 3PL (third-party logistics) services, and marketplace enhancements. Recent reports by Insider Intelligence highlight that TikTok Shop’s gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2024 is projected to grow by over 150% year-over-year, reflecting its aggressive push into ecommerce.
What does this mean for brands? Early adopters of TikTok Shop will have a competitive edge over latecomers. TikTok is crafting a first-mover advantage by fostering partnerships with agencies and brands to optimize their marketplace presence. Additionally, we’re likely to see higher average order value (AOV) products enter the mix as TikTok pivots towards becoming an all-in-one ecommerce platform. This mirrors the “super app” model popularized by WeChat in China and aligns with broader industry trends—like Elon Musk’s ambitions for X and Zuckerberg’s vision for Meta. By 2025, TikTok Shop will likely mimic aspects of Amazon’s and Walmart’s ecosystems while leveraging its unique strengths: content-driven discovery and unparalleled creator partnerships. Brands investing now will gain a foothold in this rapidly evolving marketplace, reaping benefits as TikTok Shop scales into a U.S.-centric super app.
Zohaib Rattu | VP of Growth | Social Snowball
Insense
1. Shift Towards Paid Distribution
Brands will need to invest in paid advertising to maintain visibility on TikTok Shop, as this is the primary way to scale. The platform itself is driving this shift, as competition grows and relying solely on affiliates will no longer be enough to scale.
2. Collaborations with Affiliates Across Multiple Platforms
Expect a more integrated approach, where brands collaborate with the same affiliates across TikTok Shop and other platforms. The focus will shift towards building long-term relationships with high-quality affiliates, rather than relying on individual platform-specific deals.
3. Growth of Organic Content and Affiliate Marketing
The role of organic content and working with high-quality affiliates will continue to rise. Platforms that help automate these processes, such as Insense, will become even more valuable in 2025. Brands will need to focus on quality content and effective affiliate partnerships to thrive in the evolving TikTok Shop landscape.
Danil Saliukov | CEO and Co-founder | Insense
adQuadrant
I feel like I’m cheating here after spending time in China earlier this year visiting Live Shopping Studios but I can honestly say I’ve seen our future. I expect 2025 to see the accelerated adoption of Live Shopping, leading to big-name brands coming onto the platform. Live Shopping accounts for a significant portion of online sales in China and parts of Europe and the US will follow the same path. Live Shopping gives brands the ability to have a personality and forge an ongoing connection with their customers and this will entice name-brands to TikTok Shop.
Scott Skurnick | VP, Integrated Media | adQuadrant
adQuadrant
TikTok Shop will likely enhance its GMV Max product by introducing more granular KPIs and improving data visibility at the ad creative level. These potential updates could give advertisers deeper insights into the performance of their creative assets, enabling more precise campaign optimizations. By addressing these gaps, TikTok Shop has the opportunity to build advertiser confidence and drive greater adoption of the GMV Max product as a key tool for maximizing gross merchandise value.
Daniel Shepherd | Strategy Lead – Paid Social | adQuadrant
